
Ramos E. Mabugu, Professor of Economics in the School of Economic and Management Sciences, co-authored the most cited 2021/2022 article in the South African Journal of Economics. The journal is published by John Wiley & Sons. Ltd. Clarivate Analytics collected the data for the top cited articles published in the issue from 1 January 2021 to 15 December 2022.
The article titled, Economic and Distributional Impact of COVID-19: Evidence from Macro-Micro Modelling of the South African Economy pioneers the application of a distributional oriented computable general equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model to assess the potential short-term effects on the South African economy of the COVID-19 pandemic and optimal policy responses. The macro findings show significant evidence of decline in economic growth and employment, with the decline harsher for the severe scenario while the microeconomic results show that the pandemic moves the income distribution curve such that more households fall under the poverty line while at the same time, inequality declines.
The paper then delves into the effects of COVID-19 mitigation and recovery policies on macroeconomic and distributional effects, particularly on marginalized groups. While the COVID-19 pandemic is still unfolding, the authors highlight that its economic modelling as well as the data used to operationalise such economic models will need to be updated and improved upon as more information about the disease evolution and the economy becomes available.
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